An Evaluation of Real GDP Forecasts: 1996-2001

An Evaluation of Gdp Forecasts Made by Japanese Individual Economists

We evaluate the relative accuracy of real GDP forecasts made by 25 Japanese economists over the past 15 years. The encompassing test reveals the following results. (a) All of these forecasts outperform naïve forecasts. (b) Their current-year forecasts are inferior to the corresponding forecasts of VAR, VECM, or the Japanese government. (c) Their year-ahead forecasts are inferior to the correspo...

An Assessment of IMF Medium-Term Forecasts of GDP Growth

This paper assesses the IMF medium-term forecasts—i.e., forecasts for three, four, and five years ahead—of GDP growth published in the WEO, covering most IMF member countries, over the period 1990–2012. Evidence is drawn from surveys and interviews with IMF staff, country authorities, and representatives of the private sector, as well as a quantitative analysis of forecast errors. Results indic...

An Evaluation of Cbo Forecasts

We compare the performance of a subset of CBO’s economic forecasts against that of an unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR) model. We evaluate forecasts of real economic indicators as well as budget-related nominal statistics. We find that under most specifications, the VAR performs competitively with, if slightly worse than, the corresponding CBO forecasts at up to 20 quarters. Therefore, a...

On The Relationship between Energy Consumption and Real GDP on Iran: An Application of VEC Mode

This paper examines the causal relationship between energy use and real GDP for the period 1967-2002 in Iran. The results of Phillips- Perron test indicate that the real GDP and the four categories of energy, i.e. coal, oil, gas, and hydroelectric energy are integrated of order one. Besides, the Johansen — Juselius maximum likelihood co- integration tests imply the existence of Granger causalit...

An Intervention Analysis Of The Behavior Of The Iranian Real Gross Domestic Product: 1959-2001